Vaults

Introduction to Value Betting

Convert odds to probabilities, calculate expected value, and set written stake rules before you risk any money. For Sports bettors who want to understand prices, implied probability, expected value and bankroll discipline before staking real money.

00 - Command CenterBankroll Plan TemplateClaude PlaybookLesson 1.1 - Three odds formatsLesson 1.2 - Implied probabilityLesson 1.3 - The bookmaker marginLesson 1.4 - Removing the marginLesson 1.5 - Line shoppingLesson 2.1 - What value meansLesson 2.2 - Expected value formulaLesson 2.3 - Estimating probabilityLesson 2.4 - Testing your estimateLesson 2.5 - Closing line valueLesson 2.6 - Writing a bet thesisLesson 3.1 - Defining your bankrollLesson 3.2 - Flat unit stakingLesson 3.3 - Kelly staking basicsLesson 3.4 - Variance and losing runsLesson 3.5 - Limits and stop rulesLesson 4.1 - Building a bet logLesson 4.2 - Sample size cautionLesson 4.3 - Spotting biasLesson 4.4 - Monthly review routineLesson 4.5 - Deciding to continueMOC - Map of ContentModule 1 - Reading OddsModule 2 - Finding ValueModule 3 - Bankroll RulesModule 4 - Tracking ReviewMonthly Review TemplateOdds Conversion TemplateREADME - Start HereResourcesStart Here - WelcomeTemplates OverviewValue Check Template

The real graph view of this vault: 36 notes, every line a link between them.

Obsidian vault (.zip)21 lessons4 templatesClaude prompt in every lessonCourse book: opens in any browser
$27

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What's inside

  • Module 1 - Reading OddsThree odds formats; Implied probability; The bookmaker margin; Removing the margin; Line shopping
  • Module 2 - Finding ValueWhat value means; Expected value formula; Estimating probability; Testing your estimate; Closing line value; Writing a bet thesis
  • Module 3 - Bankroll RulesDefining your bankroll; Flat unit staking; Kelly staking basics; Variance and losing runs; Limits and stop rules
  • Module 4 - Tracking ReviewBuilding a bet log; Sample size caution; Spotting bias; Monthly review routine; Deciding to continue

How it works

  1. Pay; the download link arrives on screen and by email.
  2. Unzip it and open the Course Book in any browser, or open the folder in Obsidian (free) as a vault.
  3. Start at the Command Center and tick off lessons.

This course teaches how to analyse prices and manage risk; it does not promise profit, and many bettors lose money even when they bet carefully.